Sunday 8 July 2012

News Hour- Trade 2022: How India's trade scenario will shape up ten years from now

April 1, 2022: Yesterday, the Commerce Minister unveiled the Long-Term Export-Import Policy for 2022-27, to coincide with the 14th Five-Year Plan (2022-27). As was indicated in the Annual Report for 2020-21, several organisations, Directorate General of Foreign Trade, Directorate General of Supplies & Disposals, Directorate General of Anti-Dumping and Allied Duties, Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Development Commissioner for SEZs and the Boards (of coffee, rubber, tea, tobacco, spices) and Export Development Authorities (marine, agriculture) have now been wound up. 


This follows the recommendations of the high-powered C Rangarajan panel, which submitted its report in 2017. Because of coalition dharma, some amendments and repeal of relevant legislation are still stuck in Parliament. DGCIS was unable to reconcile its export/import data with the Reserve Bank's and the data task has been outsourced to CMIE. With GST implemented in 2018 and complete registration of exporters, export incentives are only via the advance licensing route. 

DGAD has moved to the Finance Ministry and SEZs have been declared illegal by the Supreme Court under Article 14 of the Constitution. Therefore, the Department of Commerce only has a trade policy division now, divided separately into multilateral agreements, regional agreements, subregional agreements and bilateral agreements. 

Negotiations on the Doha Development Agenda were completed in 2019 and agreements will come into effect in 2029. SAFTA is stuck, because Pakistan has not yet been able to resolve the most-favoured nation issue. Meanwhile, Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreements have separately been signed with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and China. 

The agreement with South Korea will have to be revisited once Korean re-unification happens. Separate sub-regional economic integration agreements have been signed with Sri Lanka and Maldives, and Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh. 

Following the agreement with China, trade figures are being reported in three currencies - US dollar, Indian rupee and Chinese yuan. Merchandise exports were $1.2 trillion in 2021-22 and are projected to grow by 20% during the long-term export policy period. In the last couple of years, export growth has been constrained by the rupee appreciating to Rs 45 against the dollar. 
(Source- economictimes.indiatimes.com)

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